How to Launch Prediction Markets: An iGaming Case Study

The rise of prediction markets is reshaping the iGaming landscape. What was once seen as a niche or temporary trend — a “crypto experiment” or “election‑cycle spike” — has grown into a major sector. Monthly trading volume surged from $32 million in January 2024 to $12{,}6 billion in January 2026, and operators can no longer afford to ignore it.

Why enter the prediction market?

Industry leaders like Alexander Kamenetskyi (Head of Operations, SOFTSWISS Sportsbook) and Daniil Korolko (Head of Product Line, N1 Partners) highlight a key insight: a large audience interested in financial and political events was already betting — just not through traditional sportsbooks.

Korolko notes that N1 Partners observed "huge demand forming outside the traditional sportsbook space". Kamenetskyi adds that a "legitimate, high‑volume betting segment has formed entirely outside the traditional operator ecosystem" — and most of the industry chose to watch rather than act.

Choosing the right model: fixed odds vs. P2P

SOFTSWISS and N1 Bet opted for a fixed‑odds model instead of replicating P2P exchanges. Here’s why:

• Liquidity. A pure P2P exchange requires building and sustaining liquidity from scratch on both sides of the market — a complex and resource‑intensive task.

• Control. With P2P, operators effectively give up control over margin and revenue predictability.

• Regulation. The regulatory landscape for exchange models is highly fragmented and uncertain across key markets (US, UK, Europe).

• Simplicity. Fixed odds lets players take a clear position (yes/no) without needing to understand complex market mechanics.

In the fixed‑odds approach, the player bets against the house, not another participant. The operator retains full control over the margin, prices markets through internal risk and trading models, and manages liability within established bookmaking frameworks.

Results since launch

Early data shows the strategy is paying off:

• Player reactivation. Dormant users return when they see markets on topics they follow.

• Cross‑sell. Players who come in through prediction markets often explore the sportsbook.

• Lower barrier. The model attracts casino audiences who previously didn’t engage with sports betting.
  

"We knew the product would attract new types of players. We didn’t expect it to bring back so many existing ones that had gone quiet," says Korolko.

First‑mover advantage and regulation

Kamenetskyi stresses that the question is no longer “Is this a real product category?” (it is), but “Which operators will build brand recognition in new communities?”

Key takeaways for operators:

• The first‑mover window is narrowing. Waiting for the category to be “proven beyond all doubt” means missing out on early audience capture.
• Regulatory uncertainty affects the pace of expansion, not the viability of the model. Early movers can capture value while regulation catches up.
• Brand recognition is built by being present as new audiences form habits — not through a single product launch.

Launching prediction markets with a fixed‑odds model lets iGaming operators tap into new, high‑value audiences without overhauling their core business. By offering a simple, regulated experience, operators can drive player reactivation, cross‑sell into existing products, and establish early leadership in a fast‑growing sector — even as regulatory frameworks continue to evolve.